Oh, right, that’s why you’re here. A strange season for the Blue Jays has left them out of the headlines throughout the majority of the season, but with the playoffs drawing closer, it’s clear to see that they are a talented bunch. But they might only finish third in their division. So, do they have what it takes to win in the postseason? Let’s jump into why this squad could truly be championship-caliber.

3 Reasons the Toronto Blue Jays Will Win in the Postseason

This Lineup is Deep and Really, Really Good

How many teams can boast Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as their fourth-best hitter by wRC+? That’s a pretty wild observation. Guerrero Jr has a 114 wRC+ on the season, which is still a good contribution to a competing team. But it isn’t the Guerrero Jr we know and love.

But a breakout is coming. The underlying metrics still point to a star player, lurking beneath the surface. He is hitting the ball as hard as anybody in the league, and hitting it hard just as often. He ranks in the 98th percentile for max exit velocity and 96th percentile for hard-hit percentage.

It’s quite possible that Guerrero has just been unlucky. His actual numbers (.265 batting average, .335 wOBA) are much lower than his expected stats (.301 batting average, .385 xwOBA). And for a little bonus, he’s striking out a little less and walking a little more.

One aspect of Guerrero’s game to watch going forward is his groundball rate. He has always had a higher groundball rate than league average, so as much as he mashes, sometimes he just mashes it into the ground. His flyball rate has remained relatively steady, however. Unless Guerrero Jr turns into a pumpkin, the Blue Jays will be content with a 114 wRC+ hitter, sit back, relax, and wait for him to start whacking those balls out of the park again.

As mentioned, Guerrero isn’t even the most productive player on his team this year. Bo Bichette, Brandon Belt, and Matt Chapman all have had more productive seasons. Bichette, specifically, has proven he is one of the best hitters in baseball this season.

This lineup has interesting players one through nine, besides the star names. Whit Merrifield and Kevin Kiermaier were fascinating additions over the past year. They are both in the latter portions of their career, but they provide on-base threat with solid defense.

Merrifield continues to be a great well-rounded player. He might not be praised as a star, but he fits into the lineup perfectly. He boasts a 113 wRC+ with a low strikeout rate, speed on the basepaths, and good defense. Kiermaier is still wrangling in flyballs all over the place and has been slightly better than league-average with the bat.

Cavan Biggio and Daulton Varsho are wonderful role players, as well. They are not going to carry this team, but they fill out the rest of the roster with credible options. Biggio’s season stats aren’t impressive, but he has a 120 wRC+ since May 1. Varsho is an incredible defender, tied for the league lead with 20 Outs Above Average. He is a below-average hitter but has enough peak power to sneak in some pop throughout the season.

The Blue Jay’s offense has not been a dominant force throughout the entire season, but the potential is easy to see. They have the seventh-best team strikeout rate in baseball, and second-best in the American League, only behind the Houston Astros. They have plenty of individual players capable of hitting a key homer or starting a rally. If they heat up for the playoffs, they will be as dangerous as anyone in the American League.

Starting Pitching Turnaround

The rotation looks quite different than expected after Alek Manoah‘s great 2022 season. Instead, Jose Berrios is looking like the guy the Jays expected when they first signed him. Hyun Jin Ryu is back from injury. Yusei Kikuchi could be an ace in the making. Chris Bassitt has been a heavy lifter, leading the team in innings while providing above-average pitching. Oh, and Kevin Gausman has a decent chance at winning the American League Cy Young award.

The Blue Jays have, at the very least, four starting pitchers that Toronto would feel happy about taking the mound. That’s much more depth than most Wild Card teams.

Let’s take a deeper look at Berrios’ resurgence. He has meaningfully improved in nearly every area of his game. He is striking out more batters than last season, giving up fewer barrels, and has drastically reduced his hard-hit percentage.

His pitch mix has changed significantly over the past season, as well. He is throwing his changeup at a career-high rate and cut his four-seam fastball usage from 27.7% to 21.7%. This swap has made a massive difference. Both pitches are performing better. In using his 4-seam fastball less often, the expected wOBA against it has dropped from .440 (yikes!) to .327. His changeup has become a great wipeout pitch, with the whiff percentage jumping from 24.3% to 34.1% this season.

Yusei Kikuchi went from being one of the worst pitchers in baseball to a truly valuable piece in this rotation. His biggest flaw was just how much hard contact he allowed last season. He was in the bottom 5% of pitchers in average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity, expected wOBA against, and hard-hit percentage…Okay, you get the idea.

His bounce back has been fueled by the ability to limit that hard contact. Once again, some changes to the pitch arsenal could be behind this. He virtually didn’t throw a curveball before this season, but now uses it almost 17% of the time. It’s been the pitch to induce the most whiffs for Kikuchi this season. His slider has seen some changes, as well. He now throws the pitch two miles per hour harder than last season. His fastball has been much more effective as he has been able to avoid the barrels on opponents’ bats more. The xwOBA against the pitch dropped from .423 to .309.

Calling for Backup

The Blue Jays might not even need their lineup to start hitting like their bats are on fire with the bullpen they have backing up their starters. As a group, the Jays’ relievers have the fourth-lowest ERA in baseball. They have one of the best relief corps in both racking up strikeouts and avoiding walks.

Here are the four key Blue Jays’ relievers and their season ERA.

Jordan Romano: 2.66 (along with 30 saves)
Erik Swanson: 3.23 ERA
Trevor Richards: 2.96 ERA
Tim Mayza: 1.05 ERA

There are even more contributors, like Jay Jackson, who flies under the radar.

Jordan Romano is one of the best closers in baseball. By Stuff+, a pitch quality metric, he has the third-best slider in all of baseball. And the sixth-best fastball. A lockdown bullpen is pretty useful in the playoffs, it turns out. With a starting rotation as deep and strong as Toronto’s, they could find themselves in situations where they could use their 1-2-3 relievers in multiple playoff games. An elite defense, a lockdown bullpen, and a roster that could explode at any moment seem like a fantastic foundation for a playoff team.

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3 Underrated Players to Watch on Non-Contenders

Zack Gelof, Oakland Athletics

There are always intriguing rookies who go unnoticed in the Rookie of the Year voting, and the influx of young players like Zack Gelof and Tyler Soderstrom was one of the few bright spots for Oakland this year.

Gelof has been an especially exciting find for Oakland. He brings a high power profile with a high strikeout rate. He is athletic, ranking in the 93rd percentile for sprint speed, but that hasn’t yet translated to fantastic defensive performance.

Gelof’s offensive output is the primary reason to be excited, though. He leads all rookies with at least 100 plate appearances with a 157 wRC+. He has eight home runs through his first 27 games. He probably will not have a high batting average, but his power supply should be valuable. The main concern is his strikeout rate. Even in Triple-A this season, he ran a 27.9% strikeout rate. In the majors so far, he has a 28.9% strikeout rate. He is still adjusting to the majors, so he should be able to reduce that number in time. However, if that stays in the high-20s, it might limit his offensive ceiling.

Maikel Garcia, Kansas City Royals

The Royals have seen some promising young players pop up in recent years, and Maikel Garcia might be flying under the radar. He has showcased an interesting offensive profile as well as elite defense at third base.

He has a .290 batting average and a .721 OPS in his rookie season. That is just slightly below league average, but the bat-to-ball ability is promising. He rarely whiffs and chases even less. He has a 50% hard-hit percentage, which is good enough for the top 9% in the league. Despite this consistent contact, he has been unable to hit many home runs as he has a very low barrel percentage. At only 23 years old, his development at the plate will be interesting to watch. His average exit velocity is good, but tapping into some more high-end power could make for a fascinating high-average player with 10+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases a year.

His defense is the most entertaining attribute to his game. He is currently tied for first among all third basemen with eleven Outs Above Average. Put him alongside Bobby Witt, Jr. at shortstop, and the left side of the Royals infield starts to look exciting.

Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals hope to bounce back from a disappointing year by jumping right back into contention for 2024. Lars Nootbaar will be a significant factor in that goal. After plenty of preseason hype, Nootbaar has delivered.

The World Baseball Classic added to the excitement around Nootbaar, but it took some time for him to break out with some injury concerns. By the end of May, he had a 117 wRC+. That’s still solid, but not the jump expected after his impressive rookie season.

He missed half of June, but he has been exceptional since then. Since June 19, he has a 147 wRC+ while displaying a great plate approach. He has twelve home runs, but with a high max exit velocity, he might be able to push a little higher than that. Even if his power output is not elite, he builds on that with his plate discipline. He is in the 84th percentile for whiffs and the 95th percentile for walks. He has a stellar eye for the zone, ranking in the 97th percentile for chase rate.

He has developed into a well-rounded player for the Cardinals and adds to a powerful lineup built around Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. According to Fangraphs, he has been the 16th most valuable outfielder this season with 3.1 WAR. He figures to be a key player in the Cardinals’ hope for a quick turnaround next season. If this year was any sign, he will be up to the task.

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3 Questions for the Astros-Yankees after ALCS Rematch

How Deep is the Lineup?

The Houston Astros do not have a colossus of a lineup that will easily carry them to another World Series appearance. The core of the lineup is still a nightmare for opposing hitters, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker. How deep does the rest of the lineup go, though?

Jose Abreu was an interesting off-season addition, but he has an OPS of .641 on the season. Jeremy Peña had an incredible postseason in his rookie year but generally has not taken the next step in his game. The lineup has to fit in an assortment of Martin Maldonado, Jake Meyers, and Mauricio Dubón, who have all been below-average hitters. 

The offense has been on a steady climb, however. Altuve missed much of the first half of the season. Abreu’s season numbers are still unsightly, but he has been much better since the start of June. And perhaps the most important development is the breakout of Chas McCormick. He has made more consistent hard contact as the season develops and adds some serious power while providing great defense.

The Yankees lineup is much more maligned, but there are serious problems. Outside of the stars, who can you rely on? The major problem, of course, is that they have not been able to even rely on their stars outside of Aaron Judge.

Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres have only recently lifted their OPS above league average. Torres has been the Yankees best pitcher over the past few months as Judge returned from injury. Over his past 30 games, Torres has a .906 OPS.

DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo both struggled for extended periods of time, but Rizzo was suffering from post-concussion syndrome. Anthony Volpe is a promising player for the future, but his bat is not at an All-Star level yet.

The strangest development of the season is that the Yankees have had to rely on infielders and career minor leaguers to fill out their outfield. Oswaldo Cabrera has seen a lot of time in left field, but has been up and down between Triple-A due to underperformance. So, it’s been Isiah Kiner-Falefa, another career infielder, embracing the role. He has a 115 wRC+ since the beginning of July.

Billy McKinney and Jake Bauers have been relied upon in a strange fashion. It is an incredible story and fun to watch these players have a breakout for a team that desperately needs them, but can the Yankees rely on those players carrying them to October? McKinney has a 108 wRC+ and Bauers has a 119 wRC+. In the series finale, the Yankees fielded five players with below-average OPS.

Will the Pitching Dominate?

Both teams entered the season with designs of having an elite pitching staff. For various reasons, it did not work out that way. But for both teams, it might be turning around.

The Astros’ Framber Valdez just threw a no-hitter after allowing 15 runs in his previous three outings. His overall season numbers are impressive, even if they are not as dominant as last season. His groundball rate is down significantly, but he is not allowing any more home runs and he has even bumped up his strikeout rate a few ticks.

The rest of the staff is intriguing. Jose Urquidy has not performed well, but only recently returned from injury. Hunter Brown helped the Astros win the first game of this series and has impressed in his first full season. JP France has an impeccable 2.75 ERA, but his underlying numbers draw more skepticism.

In what could end up being the most important trade of the deadline, Justin Verlander returned from the Mets. He instantly reinforces this Astros rotation, even if he has not been in Cy Young form this season.

The Yankees fall into a similar place. After last year’s performance and the addition of Carlos Rodon, the Yankees expected to rely on their rotation. Outside of Gerrit Cole, it has looked vastly different. Rodon has not been the same since returning from injury. Luis Severino has a 7.74 ERA. Domingo Germán had an inconsistent season before going on the restricted list.

Responsibility has fallen upon Clarke Schmidt to have a breakout season as he currently sits at a 4.35 ERA. He has enticing potential, rating in the top 5% of curveball spin and fastball spin, but generally giving up too much hard contact. Jhony Brito might be able to contribute next season, but currently needs more time to refine his skillset.

Nestor Cortes‘ return in this Astros-Yankees series is the most promising sign Yankees’ fans have seen in a while. Cortes looked shaky early in the season but dominated in his first start back. The Yankees would like to see more encouraging results from players like Severino and Rodon, but having Cole and Cortes at the top of your rotation is already pretty nasty.

Does the AL Still Run Through Houston?

For the first time in years, the Astros are having trouble in their own division. The Texas Rangers lead the AL West and have the best run differential in baseball. The Yankees are fighting simply to avoid last place in their division.

Do these teams still have what it takes for another ALCS rematch? After a dominant 4-0 series win in the ALCS last season, Houston still looks to be far ahead of the Yankees. It is going to take some serious work for both teams to make it back.

Houston’s championship window certainly is not over, but it looks to be a tougher road than in years past. With the caliber of players they have, though, it is possible the ALCS will run through Houston once again. The Yankees have the star names and recognition, but underperformance has plagued their season. This August matchup showed there is still a gap between the teams, but that they always match up for entertaining baseball.

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3 Changes to the AL East After the Trade Deadline

Tampa Bay Rays

In one of the most impactful trades of the deadline, Aaron Civale moved to Tampa Bay for Kyle Manzardo, the #37 overall prospect.

The Rays will have to live with potentially missing out on Manzardo’s impact bat. The pitching staff is always a strength for the Rays, but some serious injuries have derailed that plan. The rotation was depleted after Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen, and Jeffrey Springs all suffered season-ending injuries.

Civale offers another chance for the Rays to work with an accomplished starter and take him to the next level. Zach Eflin is having a career year for the Rays. What do they see in Civale that they want to build upon in a similar way? Civale is having a career year of his own, but there has been some suspicion over how sustainable it is. His expected ERA (3.66) is well over a tick higher than his actual ERA (2.34).

Tampa has recently fallen behind Baltimore in the standings and reestablishing their dominant rotation could be a step back toward winning the division.

Toronto Blue Jays

Pitching seemed to be the name of the game for Toronto heading into the trade deadline. Their Team ERA of 3.84 was good enough for the fifth-best in all of baseball after the deadline. Trades with the St. Louis Cardinals that brought in both Jordan Hicks and Génesis Cabrera bolster that strength.

The Blue Jays have had a good, but not incredible offensive season. They rank 7th in wRC+ and 14th in total runs scored. While that is not an elite output from the lineup, reinforcing their lockdown bullpen will make an impact in close games as the season comes to a finish.

The Jays also added Paul DeJong after an injury scare to Bo Bichette. While it might be more important news to hear that Bichette’s injury was not serious, DeJong is a former All-Star who adds to Toronto’s depth in the infield.  While DeJong is not the blockbuster name they might have wanted, he will hit against lefties which is a dynamic Toronto was hunting for. His 85 wRC+ against righties this season is unimpressive, but he has a 129 wRC+ against lefties.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have recently taken the division lead behind their lineup filled with potential future stars. The pitching side has been much more dubious. Career years from Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells have led the way. Grayson Rodriguez has had his moments but carries a 6.21 ERA. So, the Orioles took a chance on one of the most interesting names available at the deadline in Jack Flaherty.

Flaherty has seemed far away from the peak of his abilities in recent years as he struggled to stay healthy or dealt with underperformance. This season, he has a 4.43 ERA, but there are some reasons to believe the Orioles can help a player who has previously shown elite talent.

Flaherty is giving up home runs at the lowest rate of his career. His strikeout rate has dipped from his 2018-2020 numbers, but he has done a good job of limiting hard contact. In July, he had a 3.03 ERA. He is a high-upside player that should be competitive every fifth day. If the Orioles can work with Flaherty to find that low-3.00s ERA player for the rest of the year, this rotation will start to look a lot more threatening for October.

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Some players have already made their impact known while others are just on their way up. Here are five players to watch as the Orioles look to establish a foundation for their franchise.

Five Players Who Will Help the Orioles Win the AL East This Year… And for Years to Come

Adley Rutschman

The switch-hitting catcher has already established himself as one of the best catchers in baseball. In his debut campaign, he finished in second place in the Rookie of the Year voting. There are not many teams in baseball who have the luxury of a strong defender by the plate who can also contribute on offense.

The advanced metrics do not love Rutschman’s defense as much as his rookie season, but he is continuing to impress with his bat. He has already tied his home run total from last season in almost fifty fewer at-bats. His plate discipline is his most unique attribute. He has been in the top 5% of all players in walk rate both last season and this year. He has made it even tougher for opponents to get an easy out as he has cut his strikeout rate from an already impressive 18.3% down to 15.6%

Gunnar Henderson

Henderson has barely more than one hundred games in the big leagues, but he is already showing why he was such a highly regarded prospect. He is fourth among all rookies with sixteen home runs this season, ranking in the top 10% of all players in average exit velocity, max exit velocity, and hard hit percentage.

One area of improvement that sticks out with Henderson is his propensity to strike out. However, he is still only 22 years old and has plenty of time to refine his plate approach. He strikes out a lot, but he still takes his share of walks and does not chase outside the zone.

Not only has he racked up offensive stats, he is a true athlete. He is one of the faster players in baseball and has a great arm. The advanced metrics vary on whether or not Henderson is a good defender, but for example, Ultimate Zone Rating has him ranked as a top 10 defender at third base.

Grayson Rodriguez

The Orioles have a Golden Corral-size buffet of position players, but pitching is one area where they could use a boost. Rodriguez hopes to be that difference maker. For 2023, Rodriguez has struggled to reach his ceiling with a 6.91 ERA this season. However, he has put together several solid starts that show he could be moving in the right direction.

At the major-league level, he has been too prone to the long ball, allowing more than two home runs per nine innings. In the minors, he gave up fewer than one per nine innings. He has allowed excessive amounts of hard contact in his limited time on the Orioles this year, but his strikeout rate is still shining through. The Orioles might not need him to be a lockdown ace this year, but his development is key to the franchise’s hope to compete for titles for the next several years.

Jordan Westburg

Westburg already rates as a solid defender at second base and ranks in the 92nd percentile for sprint speed. There is quite obviously a pattern for finding these young, athletic players. At 24, Westburg is not as young as the other “Baby Birds,” but he can still find himself fitting a crucial role for the O’s.

In his short time in the majors, he has had league-average production. Once he starts hitting for the same power he displayed in the minors, he could become another middle-of-the-order bat to hit behind players like Rutschman and Henderson. In Triple-A this season, Westburg hit eighteen home runs in just sixty-seven games. How much will he utilize his speed? He was fifteen-for-eighteen in stolen bases attempts in Norfolk across two seasons.

Jackson Holliday

Even after all the promotions the Orioles have had recently, they still have the top prospect in baseball waiting in Double-A. Holliday has done nothing but hit since he was drafted last season. At only 19 years old, he is one of the youngest players at Double-A, but he is already looking too good for the level.

Across his minor league career, he has a .969 OPS, has walked more than he strikes out, and has nine home runs to tag along with his twenty-five doubles and nine triples. He is speedy enough to swipe some bags, too. As LastWordOnBaseball’s Braden Olson writes, Henderson has the potential to be a 30/30 player. He is yet another piece in what is sure to be a fascinating infield for years to come.

The Orioles are already pushing to be one of the best teams in baseball. Their young players will get even better. Other young players not even mentioned here, like Colton Cowser, can provide a wildly entertaining and dominant form of baseball in the years to come. Will 2023 be their year? It might not have to be with a roster this good.

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Hmm, strange….

Andrew McCutchen is a key performer as the Pirates make a playoff push…

The storyline seems like an anachronism, but yes, the Pirates hold the best record in the National League. Veteran players like McCutchen and young breakouts like Jack Suwinski have led the Pirates back to relevance with a thrilling and unexpected start. Let’s take a look at five notes from a wildly bewildering April.

Five Notes from the Pirates’ First Month

Oneil, Oh No!

The Pirates’ hopes for an exciting season took a massive hit in early April as Oneil Cruz suffered a fractured ankle on April 9th. The athletic young shortstop will miss about four months, a disastrous outcome for a team that expected him to be the centerpiece of their season. His talent would be difficult to replace, but there is still hope he will return in August.

How have the Pirates fared in his absence? Rodolfo Castro, 23, has been the stand-in shortstop. He had barely played in more than 100 games before this season. His 103 OPS+ last season would be enough to represent a fairly average player. Perfect for filling a lineup spot in case of injury, but certainly not the star power that Cruz represented.

Castro decided to challenge that narrative. In nearly all facets of the game, Castro is having a career year. He is walking more, striking out less, and hitting for more power. A lot more power. His barrel percentage nearly doubled from 6.7% last season to 12.5% this year. His hard-hit percentage is sitting at 50%.

According to BaseballSavant, he is significantly outperforming his expected batting average. However, one other statistic that showcases his improvement is his performance against breaking balls. His batting average against these pitches (.176) is still poor, but when he does connect, he is hitting for more power with a .509 expected slugging.

Veteran Savvy

Veteran leadership. Clubhouse presence. Call it what you want, but the team leaders are performing on the field, too. Andrew McCutchen made it known that he is here to play winning baseball, not to reminisce over the past. He’s made good on that sentiment with a 125 OPS+. His five home runs are second on the team, behind only Jack Suwinski. Oh, and the 36-year-old hasn’t been afraid to steal some bags, too.

Carlos Santana is also having a renaissance. He has been a below-average hitter for three straight seasons. Yet this year, he has a 115 OPS+. Santana has always been known for his plate discipline and is on pace for his best season in this regard since 2019.

And, wait, what? He is three for three in stolen base attempts. For context, Santana is in the 17th percentile for sprint speed. That statistic definitely required a double-take.

How about some pitching, too? Rich Hill is the oldest pitcher in the majors at 43 years old. He has given up two or fewer runs in his past four starts for a 1.93 ERA over that span. His pitching profile this season is just as strange as the Pirates surprising record. His fastball velocity is in the 1st percentile. That’s, uh, not good. While his fastball might not be whizzing by hitters anytime soon, his arsenal adds to the intrigue.

BaseballSavant has seven different pitch types listed for Hill. He has given up a lot of hard contact and has very little swing-and-miss in his game. He might not be throwing bullets, but it is entertaining to watch a player like Hill post up so many consecutive good performances.

Suwinski for the Fences

The most prolific young player on the roster is Jack Suwinski. His team-leading six home runs are a product of his improved plate approach and ability to make harder contact this season. He was a hard player to pin down as a breakout player after his rookie season certainly flashed some potential. But in 2022, he struck out at a 30.6% rate with a terrible expected batting average.

Moving into 2023, his walk rate has jumped up five points, but he still struggles with striking out too often. At the moment, that is only a weakness to work out, not a fatal flaw. Oddly enough, he does not chase outside the zone much, but his strikeout rate is still so glaring given his high whiff rate.

Suwinski has the 14th-best OPS in the league at 1.011. This pace might not be reasonable to expect by the end of the season, but his incredible power numbers are a sign of a breakout year. Not only has he improved his power and plate discipline, but his speed and athleticism are a key part of his role in the team. He has already stolen five bags and his defensive abilities have added value to his overall body of work.

Reynolds Renewed

The offseason drama with Bryan Reynolds was a major talking point surrounding the Pirates. Would they trade away another fan favorite? The rumors had been swirling for quite a while, but a franchise-record deal was done to keep Reynolds in Pittsburgh.

With his future secured and the fans appeased, Reynolds has continued to perform at his best. His 149 OPS+ would be the best of his career. What can’t Reynolds do at this point? His walk rate and defensive numbers are mediocre, but he hits for power, hits for average, and snags a few bags along the way. He has already racked up 23 RBIs at the heart of the lineup. As the Pirates look to keep surprising, it will be largely Reynold’s responsibility to provide a consistent presence as other players might cool down from this blazing start.

Let’s Kick It Up a Notch

The one major criticism of the Pirates’ early campaign is their lack of fierce competition. They lost a series to the Houston Astros (1-2) and won a series against the Los Angeles Dodgers (2-1). The series against the Dodgers was certainly impressive, outscoring them 14-3 in the final two games. There are many more stellar performers than listed in this column, such as Connor Joe and David Bednar. It is understandable to assume this overperformance is due to the easy schedule.

But now the Pirates face off against the Tampa Bay Rays, the only team with a better record in April. The story is obvious that the Rays are the much more deserving, talented team. How will the Pirates react?

The Pirates are already one of the feel-good stories of the year. It will take a lot more than one month to convince everyone that they are serious contenders for a playoff spot. It starts with series like this. How do they handle the Rays? How do they bounce back if they lose? Do they have the depth to push forward if players regress from such an incredible start? The division is more contentious than expected heading into the season. Pittsburgh is playing exciting baseball again and it just might be real.

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3 Reasons to Watch the Minnesota Twins

The Rotation Is a Serious Foundation

The Twins have established a well-rounded, deep pitching staff. The biggest name is Pablo López who was the main focal piece in trading Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins. He has only had one poor performance this season with his recent five-run, four-inning outing against the Washington Nationals. Even with that blip on his stat sheet, Lopez is currently sitting with a 3.00 ERA and some impressive underlying stats. He is in the 98th percentile for chase rate which has led to 39 strikeouts in 30 innings. Through five starts, the amount of hard contact he is giving up is down from last year, as well.

Sonny Gray has the most impressive statistical performance of the rotation so far with a 0.82 ERA. However, his expected ERA is 3.25, according to BaseballSavant. Gray’s numbers might be set for regression, then, but he has a solid track record and will continue to keep games competitive for his team. He only has one start this season with more than five innings, a seven-inning, one-run outing against the Houston Astros. One notable aspect of Gray’s game is his peculiar pitch mix. His most used pitch is his curveball at 26%, with his 4-Seam fastball and slider following at 18% and 16%, respectively. His 4-Seamer has been hit hard so far with opponents hitting a .538 slugging against it.

Kenta Maeda is the only member of the rotation currently holding an ERA above 3.32. The rotation might not consist of many household names but do not underestimate the importance of a solid cast of starters. In a division where most of the teams will struggle to finish above .500, consistency is a critical factor in determining the division race.

The Stars Will Only Get Better From Here

Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are extraordinarily talented, yet they have yet to find their stride in the early parts of the season. They are cornerstones of this franchise that will expect themselves to drive the lineup forward. They can carry this team when they are at their best, and they are quite the entertaining brand of baseball when they are.

Buxton has been fine so far, but his ceiling is much better than “fine.” He has been striking out more than usual with a 34.9% strikeout rate. His current 111 OPS+ would be his lowest figure since 2018. There should be no concern since it is still so early, but as he is now playing every day as the designated hitter, he has no defensive production to lean on when the bat is cold. Buxton is still an elite runner, but will he be stealing bases given the Twins’ desire to keep him healthy? His production should only increase from here and it will be must-watch television when it does.

Correa’s production, meanwhile, has been truly troublesome. He has a 78 OPS+ and his average exit velocity is in the 33rd percentile. On the positive side, his maximum exit velocity is still in the 96th percentile. His performance against fastballs has been uncharacteristic. In 2022, he hit .375 against 4-seamers with a wOBA of .453. This season, those numbers are drastically different. He only has an average of .222 and a wOBA of .284 against the pitch this season. Correa’s slow start could vanish if he locks in on the fastball again, the pitch type he has seen the most so far.

Role Players On a Roll?

The Twins have an exciting cast of role players, especially in the outfield. Joey Gallo and Max Kepler were recently activated from the injured list. Kepler has always been a case of tempting potential, yet now at the age of 30, he has not had an above-average season since 2020. His early form is worrisome with a batting average of .175 and 81 OPS+. How far removed is he from a 2019 campaign with 36 home runs and, more recently, 2021 with 19 home runs?

Gallo, meanwhile, has been performing well above his recent seasons. He has only played in 12 games, yet his slash line of .235/.350/.706 is all the Twins could hope for. Gallo’s 5 home runs in 34 at-bats are reflective of his talent when he is at his best. Any step up from last season’s paltry .160 batting average with a little power sprinkled in could provide great value for the Twins.

Jorge Polanco is another player who does not receive much recognition for his production at the plate. He is another member of the team fresh off the injured list who can provide above-average run production. He hit 33 home runs in 2021 and another 16 in 2022, despite only playing in 104 games. It will be players like Polanco, who has the potential to rip off a 20-home run season, that form the backbone of the roster around Buxton and Correa.

Main Photo: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

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Why The AL East is the Most Exciting Division in Baseball

Baltimore Orioles

After so many years spent disregarded, the Orioles are finally a threat in the American League. Last season was a fantastic display of the passion that can surround this team when they make a push for the playoffs. The O’s finished three games outside of a Wild Card spot and could certainly make another run despite heavy competition just in their own division.

The addition of more rookies will be one of the most enticing reasons to tune in to Orioles’ games. Adley Rutschman is the prime example from last season, finishing second in Rookie of the Year, and two more prospects look to join him as the foundation of this franchise. Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez are the second and fifteenth top-rated prospects in baseball, according to Keith Law of The Athletic. Even more prospects in the pipeline could make a significant impact.

Other returning veterans provide a solid lineup that can win games as the rookies find their stride. Anthony Santander and Ryan Mountcastle are both coming off impressive seasons with an OPS+ of 117 and 120, respectively. Dean Kremer is one of the most interesting arms in the rotation as he is looking to build upon a career year in 2022, but he has had two rough starts against division opponents this season.

READ MORE: Will the Orioles hit their O/U?

Boston Red Sox

Boston was overlooked heading into this season given their general lack of pizazz in the free agency market. However, the veterans that they did bring are talented players along with signing a long-term deal with Rafael Devers. Justin Turner and Adam Duvall have proven track records and will be reliable bats in the lineup (once Duvall heals from his broken wrist, of course). The team might lack the star-power name recognition, but they are currently third in all of baseball in team OPS at .814.

The signing of Masataka Yoshida was met with some doubt, but he has impressed early with a .378 on-base percentage and a pair of stolen bases. His adjustment to Major League pitching will be a major factor in the team’s success this season. He has struggled to make hard contact so far, but his two strikeouts compared to six walks is a promising sign for his contributions at the plate.

The opposite is true for their rotation. The Red Sox rank 21st in team ERA. How sustainable is this approach to rely on their hitters producing like some of the best in the league? A bounce back season from Chris Sale would be a welcome development, but he has already given up four home runs in his two starts. While there are other factors to consider, such as colder weather in the early parts of the season, his velocity is down across all of his pitches.

New York Yankees

How could you follow up a record-breaking, sixty-two home run campaign from Aaron Judge? Well, he is off to a good start with four home runs in his first nine games. The Yankees offense could be more dangerous this season, even if Judge does not hit the insane numbers that he did in 2022. A healthy DJ LeMahieu is a massive boon for the top of the lineup. Will Aaron Hicks and Josh Donaldson be able to bounce back, too?

The lack of offensive additions in the offseason is hardly a problem as a group of rookies looks to fill significant roles in their season with World Series aspirations. Oswaldo Cabrera had a 110 OPS+ in his rookie season. Anthony Volpe, the highly touted rookie, might take time to excel at the plate, but he has already made an impact with his triple to spark a rally in a win against the Orioles.

Injuries have already impacted the Yankees’ plans for the season with players like Carlos Rodon and Harrison Bader expecting to be key players heading into the season. Their return will be necessary for the Yankees to reach their ceiling this year, but other players are looking to prove themselves in the meantime. Jhony Brito has capitalized on the opportunity, allowing a single run over ten innings in his first two Major League games. He might not be a top tier pitcher, but with several players fighting for the fifth spot in the rotation, he has made an excellent case for himself.

READ MORE: Will the Yankees hit their O/U?

Tampa Bay Rays

Who saw that coming? The Rays have already locked down the win in all nine games, spurred on by an exceptional offense and shutdown pitching. It might not be surprising to see the Rays lead the league in Team OPS and Team ERA.

Let’s start with the offense. The Rays are eternally viewed as overperformers given their payroll, but they have some truly talented players in their lineup. Wander Franco could be in for his breakout season with four home runs already, a pair of stolen bases, and a 223 OPS+. Okay, okay, that might be a bit of a small sample size to look at that OPS+ seriously, but look at that number! Randy Arozarena is up to his usual shenanigans with a .318/.333/.629 slash line and eleven RBI’s. The starting lineup features six players with an OPS over 1.000. It’s early, sure… But that is one wild way to start a season.

The pitching is similarly exciting, dripping with potential for a dominant year. Shane McClanahan and Drew Rasmussen make for one of the most terrifying duos in the American League. Jeffrey Springs might just be the breakout pitcher of the year, too. In two starts, he has allowed no runs and struck out nineteen batters in thirteen innings. This might not mean much after two starts, but his most recent outing was seven no-hit innings against the Oakland Athletics. While the Athletics are not a threatening team, it was his first career start where he was allowed to go more than six innings.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays just won a Game of the Year candidate in their ten inning, 12-11 win over the Los Angeles Angels, and it sums up their season pretty well.  They have had some highs and lows already, but the offense looks good enough to carry them to the postseason. Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are hitting like an All-Star duo, and Matt Chapman has been one of the best players in baseball so far. Chapman leads the league with fourteen hits already, good enough for a .475 average. Of course,  that isn’t sustainable, but the core of this Blue Jays lineup is that much more dangerous if Chapman continues performing like this after back-to-back season with an average under .230.

Daulton Varsho might just be the newest addition to this lineup already laden with fantastic players. As Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic noted, his first hit with the Blue Jays was his hardest hit ball of his career. The past two seasons, he has been slightly better than average and will look to have his breakout season as the Blue Jays chase down playoff success after a disappointing series in the Wild Card round.

The pitching is as interesting as any in the division with Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah leading the way. The back of the rotation is a question mark with furiously enticing players like José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi. They have shown moments of their amazing talent, yet the overwhelming majority of their work the past two seasons has been disappointing. Will the team need them to step up if the Blue Jays want to compete for the division? If they are inconsistent, will Gausman and Manoah be enough to make a deep playoff run?

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3 Reasons Why The Royals Will Hit The Over

Young Core

The Royals have developed a solid core of young hitters to set the foundations of this roster. Bobby Witt Jr, one of the most exciting young players in baseball, is set to take another step forward after an impressive rookie campaign. His on-base skills will need to improve after posting a .294 OBP with a chase rate in only the 16th percentile, according to Baseball Savant. However, he showcased several other skills to hint at his potential. He was in the 93rd percentile for max exit velocity, as well as the 100th percentile for sprint speed as he made his way to thirty stolen bases. With the new rules implemented this season, he might even be inclined to surpass thirty bags.

M.J. Melendez is another interesting case for a breakout season. Melendez was essentially league average last season, with a 99 OPS+, but some key numbers suggest there is more to come. His on-base percentage was almost one hundred points higher than his average, even with a significant number of strikeouts. His underlying power metrics are a sign he could build on his home run total of eighteen from last season.

And, of course, Vinnie Pasquantino. The industry is high on Pasquantino becoming a star, and for good reason. Across 72 games last season, he slashed .295/.383/.450. He even walked 35 times, compared to 34 strikeouts. His first full season will offer a tantalizing taste of what is to come for Royals fans.

These three players are good enough to form a threatening lineup to win on any given day. They will have the chance to exceed expectations this year as the Royals look to compete in the next few years with a talented, young core of hitters leading the way. The youth this team possesses is why Kansas City will hit the over in 2023.

Pitching

The most disappointing aspect of the Royals franchise over the past few years has been the inability to develop pitching, despite investing so many resources. However, significant changes to the coaching staff should alter the outlook for the rotation and developing prospects, causing the Royals to hit the over in 2023.

While there are plenty of mixed opinions about Brady Singer, he is certainly capable of being an above-average pitcher. The supporting cast around him should be much improved, too. Returning pitchers are adding new pitches to their repertoire and adjusting their pitch mix. Veterans such as Jordan Lyles and Zack Greinke will keep games competitive. There might not be much star power in the rotation, but it should be an improvement from last year if veterans provide consistent performances and some of the former top prospects can turn around their careers.

Progression From Last Season

The Royals Over/Under is 68.5 wins. Last season, they won 65 games. It is easy to buy into the idea of a team with so many young players and interesting veterans jumping up just a few wins. While the balanced schedule will mean playing more of the elite teams around baseball, the American League Central is still far from the most threatening.

There are a handful of players who could make a significant difference if they bounce back from a poor 2022. For example, Kyle Isbel posted a 70 OPS+ after showcasing some potential in his rookie campaign. Nicky Lopez‘s on-base percentage dropped from .365 to .281, equating to a 58 OPS+. If players like this rebound as the young stars find their breakout years, the Royals will hit the over on 68.5 wins.

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Under the Radar Outfielders to Watch in 2023

Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels

As the Angels look to finally make the postseason, Ward will be a key part of the lineup. According to Sam Blum of The Athletic, the Angels are leaning toward a batting order with Ward hitting leadoff for Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani.

Last season was Ward’s first full season and he showcased great all-around talent. He had 564 plate appearances in 2022 after only having 237 in 2021. He had a 135 OPS+ and led the team with a .285 batting average. He tallied a noteworthy 23 home runs as well. If he continues from last season, he will be a notable part of any Angels playoff push.

READ MORE: Young pitchers to watch in 2023

Lars Nootbaar, St. Louis Cardinals

The hype around Nootbaar has exploded in recent months. Last season, he hit .228/.340/.788 for an OPS+ of 126. That is an impressive line, but what really sticks out about Nootbaar is the variety of underlying metrics where he ranks among the best in the league.

According to BaseballSavant, he ranks in at least the 90th percentile of players in chase rate and walk rate, signifying his plate discipline. When he does connect with the ball, he hits it hard, too. He finished in the 85th percentile in barrel percentage and 90th percentile in average exit velocity.

The Cardinals outfield is full of young, talented outfielders. As other players battle for their spot in the lineup, though, Nootbaar looks like he will get his first taste of starting a full season as the Cardinals attempt to win the NL Central.

Harrison Bader, New York Yankees

The Yankees did not make many additions to their lineup, so Bader’s arrival in a trade last season represents one of their most recent pickups. The former Gold Glover is meant to be a defense-first player, yet he impressed with a fantastic postseason. Will that short sample be enough to become a significant offensive contributor?

The Yankees showed enough trust in Bader to trade for him even while he was injured, yet he has not had significantly more than 400 plate appearances since 2018. In a lineup featuring many injury-prone players or aging veterans, it is important for Bader to become a reliable, consistent part of this Yankees team.

He had the lowest barrel percentage of his career and posted an 87 OPS+ after back-to-back seasons of 114 OPS+. His defense should be there, will his offense rebound?

Teoscar Hernández, Seattle Mariners

Hernández joins an outfield already featuring Julio Rodríguez to add a major power boost to the lineup. Hernández, a two-time Silver Slugger, has had at least 25 home runs in each of the past three full seasons. That makes sense when you look at his metrics, too. According to BaseballSavant, he was in the 98th percentile for hard hit percentage and 94th percentile in max exit velocity. That’s a lot of dinged-up baseballs!

However, there are several areas of concern for Hernández. He strikes out a lot and rarely walks. Not a great combination, but does it matter when you are launching every other pitch into the stands? He has so consistently demonstrated this elite power that he should make for a fantastic piece of the Mariners lineup as they make a run for consecutive playoff appearances.

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